Nasdaq 100 Index – regaining long term Upward trend

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), today, has regained it’s long term Upward trend status. The Index has crossed the trend filter from below to above the 20% annualized rate of growth (CAGR) over a 200 day moving average. This trendinvesting method is for long term trading or investing. A trendinvestor, to smooth out ‘noise’, now will likely will use a channel breakout, or a Weekly close over last weeks’ High, to trigger an actual “Buy”. The stockchart below shows the indication. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has not yet crossed above the trend filter.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)

Trade Signals – Airlines Index 3-02-2020

We can see on the stockcharts bellow, there was ample advance warning as to the viability of airlines as an investment: 1) the Relative Strength of The Airlines Index (XAL) to the S&P 500 Index (SPX), crossed below, on a 200 day average, on December 27th, 2019. 2) The Airlines Index (XAL), was barely maintaining trend prior to the market crash this month. It broke below trend on February 18th., as shown on the stockchart below. Trend as defined as maintaining an annualized rate of growth over a 200 day average, of at least 20%.

Chart of the Airlines Index (XAL) relative to the S&P 500 Index, over 200 days:

Airlines Index (XAL)

Chart of the Airlines Index (XAL) relative to the trend of 20% annualized over 200 days:

Airlines Index (XAL)

Trade Signals – Dow 30 Index 02-28-2020

At the end of the trading session today, we can see that The Dow 30 Index (DJI) has been slicing through support levels like a chain saw through Jello┬«. On the stock chart below, looking at Monthly look-backs, we can see the next major support is is approximately $21,713., .. the area of the sell off December 2018. So if this takes all Spring and Summer to resolve, we wouldn’t be surprised.

Dow 30 Industrials Index (DJI)