Pure trend following – no forecasts, no predictions, no personal opinions. Looking at 52 weeks, weekly of The Dow 30 Index, as of the close July 1st, ..it is plain to see the market is really struggling here. The market is trading below one year ago.
After the close on Friday June 12th. In this update post we are changing over from the 200 day ma, to look at the 40 Week moving average of at least a 20% annualized rate of growth. The reason is the 40 Week filters out some of the daily noise. It is more simple.
For the newbie readers out there, this means that the item is moving along a 40 Week moving average of a 20%, or greater, annualized growth.
And also for the new readers, this is pure, long term momentum trend following. This is not about fundamentals, personal opinions, forecasts, and projections. Investment Buy and Sell decisions are based on price action only.
The S&P 500 Index broke above the 40 Week, 20% growth rate, on the week of July 5th. There are several other Indexes that crossed over earlier, for example Aerospace and Defense, Real Estate, Utilities, Home Builders, Gold, Gold Miners.
Stock chart of the S&P 500 Index with the 40W MA 20% growth in the lower panel.
Trend following The S&P 500 Index (SPX), end of week after the close, closed down on the Week and Up on the Month. (lookbacks). The Index remains in a long term Upward trend. It is trading at or above a 10% annualized rate of growth over a 200 day ma.
We can see on the stock chart below, the The Index has been struggling with S/R (Support and Resistance Price Reversals) at $2,950. The rally momentum has stopped. So this is not a Weekly buy signal. On a Monthly basis, and on a long term Uptrend, sure why not?
This is pure trend following. After a major breakout, we are next looking at Gold (GC) S/R (Support and Resistance Price Reversals) to indicate a continuation of the Bull run. Gold, on a long term basis, has been outperforming the S&P 500 Index since early May.
So next, have two S/Rs to look at. One is a relatively minor Weekly S/R, and, then a Major Monthly S/R. These two levels are $1,434 and %1,529.
Yes Indeed, The S&P 500 Index (SPX) today, closed at a new all time high. The previous high was May 1st at $2,954.13. The close today was $2,954.18. So now trend following investors and traders will want to see it hold this for the Weekly close and/or the Monthly close.
On a long term basis, Gold mining stocks, US Treasury Bonds, and gold, are outperforming The S&P 500 Index. As usual, the reporters on bubblevision aren’t covering this. Instead they have OCD over the latest gimmick from “the social network”.
We can see on the Gold Miners Index (GDM) (GDX) chart, Weekly lookbacks, major S/R (Support and Resistance price reversal) from February, at the $662.10. To continue Bullish, we want to see it close over, on a Weekly and Monthly basis.