The S&P Industrial Select Sector Index $IXI, (XLI) ETF, last week indicates a long term Bullish trend. The long term trend filter at or in excess of a 20% annualized rate of growth was indicated when it crossed from below to above, its’ 200 day moving average. Additionally, the Index is gaining momentum, by way of 5 day, and 21 day, breakouts indicated since the trend filter signal.
This is pure trend investing analysis. No predictions. No forecasts. No fundamentals. No news.
The Semiconductor Index $SOX (SOX) is a study in trend investing. Several items of note:
it traded above our trend filter starting back in April and May
above filter, then made a series of 21 day breakouts, 17 signals to be exact
then an all time high on Sept. 2nd
sold off into a 21 day low on Sept. 8th
the low stuck. That was the bottom of that sell off.
3 consecutive 21 day highs were issued beginning Oct. 8th (breakouts)
Btw this can be done using the stockcharts website for free. No need to register and sign into your brokers webcast. No need for the “news”, or anything else.
The abbreviated stock chart below shows the swing into the 21 day low on Sept. 8th (red signal), that held, and the subsequent 21 day highs in Oct. (blue signals).
The Russell 2000 Small cap stocks ETF (IWM) $IWM indicates, this week, long term Bullish. It is exceeding a 20% annualized rate of growth (CAGR). And, we can see on the stock chart below, a long term breakout, above $159.50. We’ll look to see if it closes the week at this level. On a relative basis, it is stronger than the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) $SPY, over a 200 day moving average (relative strength chart below). This may be indicating more domestic capital flow into the market, relative to international capital flow. This an ideal trend investing setup.
Comments welcome.
Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)IWM relative to SPY over 200 day average
If nothing else, at least someone is awake over at IBD. Last week they added another gold stock, Franco Nevada (FNV), to their ETF (FFTY). So this make two gold stocks, the other is Kirkland Lake (KL).
The ETF itself, although long term positive, is under-performing many other ETFs on a relative strength basis. The SPDR S&P 500 Index Growth Stocks ETF (FFTY), for example, is outperforming, long term, The IBD Fifty (FFTY). This is curious because The IBD “CANSLIM” stock picking criteria methodology, in addition to fundamentals, includes relative strength and trend investing. It seems CANSLIM isn’t working real well in the context of putting together the ETF components. IBD has a large number of followers, ie. readers. Just how many of these readers are doing their own analysis? ..we wonder.
The SPDR Growth Stock ETF (SPYG) relative to the IBD Fifty (FFTY) ETF, over a 200 day moving average, SPYG/FFTY, the bottom panel shows the relationship, posted below:
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) ($SPX), today, crossed from below trend to above. The benchmark used is a relative strength filter which measures the annualized rate of growth over a 200 day moving average.
There is a significant area of resistance just above at $3,427, as depicted in the stock chart below.
The index (SPX) today closed at $3,401.20 In an ongoing bull market, last weeks’ high, as indicated on the stock chart below, was $3,426. In the context of trend investing, we want to see the price close over that at the close of this week. The index is continuing to maintain a trend filter in excess of a 20% annualized rate of growth over a 200 day moving average.
After the close Sept. 4th, 2020. We can see the S&P 500 Index (SPX) today sold off hard intraday, reversed and rallied, and bounced off the virus high from back in February. If it can maintain this level, we might see develop a cycle inversion. A re-test would be expected. That reversal number is $3,409 The market remains Bullish. This is trend investing – not forecasting.
We’re analyzing the cannabis and marijuana industry stocks on a relative strength basis. We’re looking at 2 relative strength benchmarks – 50 day ma of 20% annualized rate of growth, and 200 day ma of 20% annualized rate of growth. The analysis measures the percent difference of the stock vs the 50 day ma rate of growth, and, the percent difference of the stock vs the 200 day ma rate of growth. The 50 day is weighted at 30% and the 200 day weight is 70% of the Trend Score. All these stocks are US Listed on Nasdaq/NYSE (not OTC stocks). These are pure play cannabis and marijuana stocks. Included in the analysis is the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ), the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), and the Gold Miners Index ETF (GDX).
This is pure trend investing analysis. No predictions, no forecasts. No personal opinions, no stock fundamentals, no economic fundamentals, no news, no social media, no teevee.
The Gold Miners Index (GDM) trading today at $1,198 down apprx. 7% from the high on July 5th of $1,271.97. The index is trading well in excess of our benchmark trend filter of 20% annualized rate of gain over a 200 day moving average. Looking at trend line analysis over the past 128 days, there is support at (lower trend line) at $1,82.
