The S&P 500 Index (SPX), today midday, trading at $3,142, is, once again, running into that resistance at $3,155, ..as shown on the stock chart below, .. as noted before. Today is the 6th time it has tagged $3,155 and failed. Of course the mass media geniuses are assigning causality of the selling today to the tax documents. How do they explain the 5 previous failures to break out?
The index continues to trade under the trend investing benchmark filter of 20% annualized rate of gain over a 200 day average – Also known as CAGR – Compound Annualized Rate of Growth.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) going into the close on Thursday (end of trading week), once again the $3,155 price is proving to be serious resistance, as shown on the stock chart below. Today is the 4th time it has tagged $3,155 and failed. The index continues to trade under the benchmark filter of 20% annualized rate of gain over a 200 day average.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) going into the close of the month, continues to trade under the long term trend Investing filter of 20% annualized rate of growth over a 200 day moving average. There is noteworthy resistance at the $3,155 area, as shown in the stock chart below.
Trend filter benchmark: 20% annualized rate of growth over a 200 day moving average.
The Gold ETF (GLD) is trading 4% above trend. By comparison, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) is trading 11.2% above trend, and, the S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) is trading 3.3% below trend.
…in terms of where the heavy flow is going, apparently yes. Based on a massive shift in money flow into the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Index relative to the Dow 30 Index (DJI). We’ll see how long this relationship continues.
We can see depicted in the stock chart below, The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) trading at new all time highs today.
The Trade Signals in this report are by way of using our long term trend filter of a 20% annualized rate of growth over a 200 day moving average. This is pure trend investing. No forecasts, no fundamentals, no news.
Blog comments welcome.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) crossed from above to below on Dec 24th, trading 5.7% below trend. Signal Bearish.
NYSE Fang Index (FANG) crossed from below to above on April 9th, trading 23% above trend. Signal: Bullish.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) crossed from below to above on May 5th, trading 7% above trend. Signal: Bullish.
Gold (GC) crossed from below to above on April 02nd, trading 7% above trend. Signal: Bullish.
Gold Miners Index (GDM) from below to above on April 13th, trading 15.5% above trend. Signal: Bullish.
Crude Oil (CL) from above to below on January 8th, trading 305 below trend..
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) today has crossed from below to above our long term Trend Investing benchmark. The next major area of resistance is $1,914 shown on the stock chart below. This industry index joins the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), The Gold Miners Index (GDM), and several others, in the Long Term Bullish category.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) this week is breaking away to the upward side, the consolidation from the April High. The Reversal (support and resistance) area was at $2,957, depicted in the stock chart below. So we’ll look for higher prices in the near term. This is pure Trend investing,.. not a forecast and not a prediction.
Like our post last week, here is another, a fundamental rant on Gold. This one deals with the US Dollar. Like all of these types of fundamental articles, they fail to connect the totality of the global flow of capital.
Once again, this article is tortuously long. It focuses on the fundamental meme of the US Dollar collapse. Busy people do not have the time or energy to read articles like this. Never mind the validity of content of the article. The dollar collapse crowd has been ranting for decades. These rants are fear porn. As if we don’t have enough of fear porn in the mass media at the moment.
The best thing to do, for individuals (and money managers) is to just follow the price action. Filter out all of the rant fear porn articles (and teevee, and tubes and podcasts). One of the fear porn podcasts this AM is droning on and on about Deflation versus Inflation (another fear porn topic going on for decades). They barely mention the price action of Gold. This is almost comical.
To their credit, the Macleod article, does have a chart of Gold with the 50 day and 200 day moving average. We post here a chart of Gold relative to a 50 day and 200 day 20% annualized rate of growth (the bottom indicator). This is a Bullish trend investing trend filter. Almost everything (indexes) else doesn’t come close.
As always, trend investing is not a prediction, and is not a forecast.
